NAHB conducts a monthly survey of its members to take the pulse of the single-family housing market. The survey asks participants to rate market conditions for the sale of new homes at the present time and in the next six months as well as the traffic of prospective buyers of new homes. The above chart was published in January of 2017.
Ben Caballero, CEO of HomesUSA.com, believes this HMI chart predicts a good market for home builders for this year and beyond. Not since this index was created in 1985 has it been more bullish. The lag between the starts line and the HMI indicates an industry struggling to overcome the damage done to its production capacity during the 2008 – 2012 period. Governmental financial and regulatory burdens have further inhibited our industry. Hopefully the new administration will provide relief by reducing banking, environmental and other regulatory restraints.